Contents
Drop-rates & Game mechanics:
The following is only of interest to those that like to probe game mechanics.. you've been warned :P
Some points to consider about drop rates:
1:
The game has pretty low drop rates for most items, including Treasure Boxes (from instance drops) and chance to draw a skill CC from the Command Center, yup believe it or not there is a very very small chance to get a skill CC or better CC from all those common commander draws, also the "good stuff" from the lucky wheel has a particularly low drop (0.001 or less)
2:
It helps to understand the half and double rule, simply put.. If you have a 10% chance to get an item, you also have 50% chance to get this drop in half or less ( <5 ) or at least double the attempts ( >20 ), that is while you would expect 1 in 10 drop, You can also express this same drop rate as 1 in 5 drop 50% of the time or 1 in 20+~Infinity drop 50% of the time, obviously the problem is that 1 in 20+~infinity drop not the 1 in 5.
3:
There is no modifier, It's fairly typically for a game that contains random elements with very small chances of success would use an additive modifier, for instance 1% additional chance for each unsuccessful attempt, expressed in Probability Maths. as P(0.01)
This is added to the regular chance to roll a Blueprint or whatever each time your unsuccessful, so that if the BP roll chance is p=0.1 (or 10% probability), each time you are unsuccessful it adds 0.01 to your next attempt, therefore after 10 attempts your probability is p=0.2 (or 20% probability) so you have a formula like this..
Base_Chance + (Modifier x Attempt_Number) = Actual_Chance;
thus...
0.1 + (0.01 X 10) = 0.2;
where in this example Base_Chance case would be 0.1 (10%) and Modifier would be +0.01 (+1%) and Attempt_Number would be 10, resulting in 0.2 (20% probability).
I know that's a long explanation; but that's how it is, there is no chance modifier, therefore your chance is always 0.1 (10%); which is bookmaker luck, not game luck; as this never improves no matter how many times you go to an instance.